In addition to massive infrastructure investments, the agreement envisions closer cooperation on defense and intelligence sharing, and is rumored to include discounts for Iranian oil. You may opt-out by. Iran-China Deal: Implications for Security of CPEC and Region. China’s oil … China’s strategic investment together with military cooperation would boost one of the most anti-American powers, threaten American allies in the Middle East from Riyadh to Jerusalem, and provide Chinese companies preferred access to trillions of dollars in untapped hydrocarbons and markets. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani chairs a cabinet meeting in Tehran on January 15, 2020. The United States is likely to push back against this partnership, which threatens US security and energy interests in the Middle East and Eurasia. In addition to consulting for both the public and private sectors, I testify regularly before the U.S. Congress, and appear on Bloomberg, CNN, FOX, BBC, Al Jazeera, and other TV channels. The huge deal between Iran and China has struck much speculation regarding the deal’s future consequences within the Middle East region. Explore Billionaires 31. It has the practical capability to link Chabahar with Gwadar, complementing each other and acting as sister ports. It is indeed a win-win game for China, Iran, and Pakistan. China in the Mideast. What was a bolt from the blue for India, was reports of Indian ouster from Chabahar rail project? By Muhammad Tayyab Safdar and Joshua Zabin for The Diplomat August 14, 2020 India on the other hand, governed by a Hindutva-dominated BJP regime has pursued an expansionist approach. The China-Iran deal is the latest step in Beijing’s attempt to expand from a regional hegemony to a world power via BRI. Agile Indian presence in Iran, under the guise of geo-economic partnership constituted consequential threats to China Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Iran-China 25-year Cooperation Program or Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between I.R. Recent cyber-attacks on its nuclear and naval infrastructure are also pushing to government into the arms of China. Expulsion of India from the rail project, and advent of China in Iran, have significant implications for Pakistan, whose economy is closely allied with China and its security heavily reliant on secure western border. It would also serve to benefit the world’s most voracious energy consumer and provide a mechanism to sell Iranian oil while evading US sanctions policy. Mish. China and Iran’s new deal is a big win for Pakistan — and a bigger loss for India. Jul 21, 2020. Admin PSF - September 10, 2020. Pakistan offers the most appropriate alternative for their linkage. Tehran has at times expressed its willingness to be included into CPEC. If finalized, the PRC would gain massive influence in this geopolitically critical region, and simultaneously throw a lifeline to the embattled Mullah Regime. Nothing other than Gwadar offers shortest route to China, which is the underlying objective of Beijing. China does not share any border with Iran. I advise law firms and corporations, and once helped to get a famous Russian oligarch out of Putin’s jail. Iran has been negotiating a 25-year accord with China and the terms will be announced once a deal is struck, the foreign minister told a stormy session of parliament Sunday. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. by Micha Gefen July 15, 2020. written by Micha Gefen July 15, 2020 1004 views. With Assistance from David Pasmanik and James Grant, I am a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis, a Washington, D.C.-based global risk advisory boutique. China and Iran have drafted a comprehensive military and trade partnership. WhatsApp. Updated: 15 Jul 2020, 04:08 PM IST ANI . Biden, who takes office on January 20, has signaled Washington would rejoin the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear … A China-led political and economic primacy is neither challenged by Pakistan nor Iran, specifically at a time when US is more assiduously aligned with India and Gulf nations. July 21, 2020; President Xi Jinping of China, left, and President Hassan Rouhani of Iran concluding a joint news conference in Iran in 2016. The Iran-China deal has been drawing a lot of attention. The deal will make way for about $400 billion worth of Chinese investments into ... August 06, 2020. For sanctions and pandemic-hit Iran, it will offer important leeway to economically survive at a difficult juncture, when Iran’s military and nuclear sites are targeted for destruction, likely by a concerted effort involving Israel and some Arab Gulf states. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Twitter Share . China is striving hard to fill the vacuum created by potential US exit and Indian expulsion from Iran, both of which are in Pakistan’s national interest. The recently announced China-Iran deal, while a pact between two countries, is certainly an event of global significance, which will have far-reaching implications. Twitter. As China and India continue to have estranged relations, Beijing’s growing influence in the strategically-important Iran is being seen as a matter of concern by the Indian opposition. Both countries see the deal as mutually beneficial, but also as a potential mechanism for confronting US dominance in the Middle East. Such events from occurring in the future to […] This dire situation preceded the outbreak of COVID 19, which hit Iran particularly hard (and crushed demand for its chief export). United States has begun to step up its ante against China, by prominently empowering India. Iran at one point intended to buy 80 Boeing civilian airliners, creating jobs in Seattle. It has strained its relations with almost all its neighbors, predominately Nepal and China in recent months. ... “Sino-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” approved by President Hassan Rouhani’s administration in June 2020. 540. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) shakes hands with Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif ... [+] during their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing on December 31, 2019. For 22 years, I was the Heritage Foundation’s leading Russia/Eurasia and international energy expert. It will have far reaching effects on regional security, and act as a catalyst for the undergoing geo-strategic shift. The possibility of China securing vital commodities, save the grappling Iranian regime, establish strategic influence in the region and consequently challenge the United States is dwarf. Under the strategic agreement, final proclamation of which is yet to be made official by Beijing, China will invest in energy, infrastructure, telecommunications, and banking sectors of Iran. The BRI land route has also been criticized for waste and fraud, which is certainly part of a broader pattern. In June 2020, a draft of the China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was leaked to the media by an Iranian source. Similarly, Pakistan owes China at least $10 billion in debt for the construction of Gwadar Port, and the territory is leased to the Chinese government through 2059. The prospective agreement also extends a number of potential defense cooperation projects and underscores increased intelligence sharing. How Iran-China deal could alter the Middle East's balance of power Shireen T Hunter Published date: 14 July 2020 08:55 UTC | Last update: 6 months 1 week ago This was followed by murmurs of Iran-China deal. In the past, as do so in present, Baloch militants have carried out cross border attacks on security apparatus of Pakistan and projects related to CPEC. Rapid alignment and rebalancing approaches adopted by regional countries are indicative of a new cold war. About Author: Author is BS International Relations & has interests in Security situation in Baluchistan and foreign entanglements, Sino-American rivalry and impacts on Pakistan. Sino-Iran accord would potentially compound the significance of CPEC. Beyond that, companies which are getting involved in the Sino-Iranian honeymoon will be doing so at their own peril, while high economic and security risks are only mitigated by Beijing’s strategic commitment, focus, and implacability. “There is nothing to hide about the deal. China and Iran are rumored to be finalizing a $400 billion deal which would deepen economic, political, and militarily ties between two of America's chief adversaries. A Report Undercuts Nuclear Firm’s Claims That Its Plants Need Bailouts. Share. This deal therefore allows China a strategic leverage in the Middle East. Furthermore, looking from a broader regional security perspective, inclusion of Iran with its compatible interests with Pakistan and a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan, presents a more connected and stable region. Iranian government announced to invest $400 million on the project which would connect Chabahar port with Zahidan and subsequently lead to Hajigak in Afghanistan. Iranian Transport and … China and Iran are on the verge of a economic and military deal. Nevertheless, Gwadar’s geo-strategic significance cannot be minified. Oil output and revenues have plummeted — falling from nearly 4 million bpd in 2018 to just 2 million bpd today. (Photo by Noel CELIS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by NOEL CELIS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images). Iran – with its strong anti-American sentiment, large military, and vast hydrocarbon reserves – is an important piece of China’s global Go board. Whatsapp. Additionally, Pakistan and Iran have converging interests in Afghanistan. Iran-China Deal: Implications for Security of CPEC and Region. It is therefore presumably safe to state that the projected Sino-Iran strategic agreement will complement CPEC and act as a booster for regional connectivity. Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) - The 2015 nuclear deal signed by the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany with Iran had the potential to bring Iran into the world community economically and politically. Another country in the region, The Maldives, owes China roughly $1.5 billion in debt which is about 30% of its GDP. It’s little secret that Washington’s foreign policy interest constantly clash with those of Tehran and Beijing. In the 21st century that there is no question of America’s new ‘near’ peer competitor: the People’s Republic of China, a country with a much bigger economic base than the USSR ever had. Neutralizing this security threat, which has been a major obstruction for the fruition of the mega project, would be instrumental for Pakistan’s economic outlook. Facebook. What China's New Deal with Iran Says About Its Ambitions in the Region ... 2020 8:57 AM EDT ... founder of a think tank that promotes trade between Europe and Iran. After all, the rising superpower offers an insatiable oil market, military and civilian technology, massive investment, and a potential political cover  on the global stage, including a veto power in the UN Security Council – all things that Iran is in dire need of. China’s  Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the flagship of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global ambitions, is a powerful policy tool that puts US foreign policy influence to the test. The US will continue to take action against any Chinese company breaking sanctions, according to a US State Department source. Iran-China Deal Sending Shockwaves Through The World. The document's possible draft is 18 papers long. I am a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis, a Washington, D.C.-based global risk advisory boutique. TEHRAN – In a commentary on its website on Thursday, the CGTN (China Global Television Network) says the impending 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement between Iran and China is “primarily pragmatic”. A final China-Iran deal would be a win-win serving the national interests of both sides. The firm’s interventions span international security, economics, law, politics, terrorism, and crime and corruption. However, many commentators have raised concerns that China’s cooperation with Iran and consequent overtake of Chabahar and Bander Abbas ports would downgrade Gwadar’s relevance. The yet-to-be finalized 25-year partnership has been strongly criticized by American officials, as it seems to threaten U.S. interests and hegemony, particularly in the West Asia region. © Pakistan Strategic Forum @ 2020 | All rights reserved. Recent developments in the region and beyond augur a significant paradigm shift. Note: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Pakistan Strategic Forum. India has cleared the air around speculation regarding the […] Often times, this manifests itself as leverage for key infrastructure grabs, one of the most famous examples being Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, which the government was forced to lease to China for 99 years after it failed to repay Chinese loans. The proposed agreement would drastically reduce Indian influence and replace it by China with enhanced role in the country. Iran, P.R China is an agreement on Iran-China relations drafted on 24 June 2020 in Beijing between Iran and China. Yet there is some Iranian concern about a full economic embrace of China. Photo: AFP. China’s strategic decision for such an investment into Iran comes at a notable time – immediately following the Sino-Indian Border Clash of June 2020. However, the partnership document is drafted in non-binding terms and is more akin to a … Murmurs of a potential $400 billion trade and military deal between Beijing and Tehran have reached New Delhi. Whereas Tehran is desperate for foreign investment, China needs uninterrupted flow of energy. I cover energy, security, Europe, Russia/Eurasia & the Middle East, during their meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing on December 31, 2019. I am also a Senior Fellow with the International Tax and Investment Center (ITIC) where I direct their Energy, Growth, and Security Program (EGS). You have entered an incorrect email address! Others have since joined the criticism, including former conservative lawmaker Ali Motahari, who appeared to suggest on Twitter that before signing the pact Iran should raise the fate of Muslims who are reportedly being persecuted in China. Coming at a time when we already have a ‘US vs. rest of the world’ situation in the UNSC over arm embargoes on Iran, the fact that China, a super power already entangled in a ‘trade-war’ with the US… The Iran-China deal can be a mutually beneficial arrangement if great care is taken in drafting an agreement that is not lopsided and exploitive plus avoids a ... July 22, 2020 at 11:28 am. However, Pakistan is among the beneficiaries of the deal, and welcomed the pact with zeal. It would bolster China’s new digital currency e-RMB as a way to bypass American financial systems, and reduce the power of the dollar. Certainly, Pakistan views the deal with admiration and opportunity. Proposed Iran-China deal Najmuddin A. Shaikh Published July 19, 2020. By. Similarly, Gwadar port has and continues to face instability due to its proximity to precarious Iranian border. Share on Facebook. 7 Jul 2020. My consultancy focuses on political risk, national security, and energy policy, especially in Russia/Europe/Eurasia, and the Middle East. Iran-China Deal: Implications for Security of CPEC and Region, Role of Pakistan Navy in 1965 War: Operation Dwarka, Sino-Indian Crisis in Galwan Valley & Their Implications on South Asia, Pakistan-US relations during Trump’s Era, Importance of Indus Water Treaty for Pakistan. (Photo by Noel CELIS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by NOEL CELIS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images), America's Top Givers: The 25 Most Philanthropic Billionaires, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Washington State Senate Bill 5244 – Needed Support For Nuclear Power, ExxonMobil Caps Year From Hell With $22 Billion Loss, As Activists Demand Big Change, Incremental Progress Is The Pathway To A Decarbonized Electric Grid, Biden’s Keystone XL Order Hurts America’s Ability To Do The Big Things, How Blockchain Is Helping Big Oil Optimize For A Carbon-Friendly Future, For Texans Renewables Are The Future, And Coal And Fracking The Past, How Fossil Fuels Are Saving Lives In Developing Countries. While the arrangement could offer new life to Iran’s sanction-choked economy, there is also the distinct possibility that it could leave the Islamic Republic inescapably beholden to Beijing. Moreover, US withdrawal from Afghanistan, magnifies the opportunities for both China and Iran. China, sensing America’s internal political difficulties amidst social justice protests and a poor COVID-19 response, is taking off the gloves: Beijing is said to be in the final stages of approving a $400 billion economic and security deal with Tehran. Previously, New Delhi had planned to invest on the project which would have helped India extract iron deposits of worth $3 billion from Hajigak and ultimately extend trade links to Central Asia. Iran-China deal is ‘pragmatic’: CGTN. July 22, 2020 Iran-China Deal Must be Green by Daryan Rezazad. Tweet. Jul 10, 2020. An Iranian flag (REUTERS) China, Iran enters $400 billion strategic partnership deal 1 min read. August 11, 2020 - 15:7. Given Afghanistan’s volatile political and security situations, it is highly unlikely to be considered as a viable option. I advise. 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